Friday, May 3, 2013

"My Forehead Is Bleeding"

IM (an American citizen with an inquiring mind):  Gadfly, just before you arrived, I bumped into a good, progressive friend.  I asked what he thought about today’s labor report, and he said, “Obama’s policies are working—unemployment rates are down.”
Old Gadfly:  Doesn’t he have a good argument?
IM:  I showed him the following graphic that I retrieved from the Bureau of Labor Statistics just this morning.  I suggested that this graphic is a much better picture of the current job situation, because it’s a better measure for the percentage of the employable population that is actually working. 
I added, “The percentage began its decline in 2007 when Democrats seized large majorities with a vocally vehement anti-business sentiment in both houses of Congress; and the decline accelerated at the end of 2008 when Democrats took control of two entire branches of the government.  The sharp decline leveled off with Tea Party movement warnings and Republicans taking control of the House.” 
I continued, “Politicians spin the statistics despite the number of real people affected.  The illusion of a lower unemployment rate does not account for the number of previously employed people that have dropped out of the job market.” 
Old Gadfly:  How did he respond?
IM:  He was in a daze, looking right through me with no facial affect and eyes glazed over.
Old Gadfly:  What happened next?
IM:  I said, “Look at this spreadsheet from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that I downloaded just this morning.”
 
I then raised my voice a little more and said, “Listen.  Since December of 2006, Bush’s last month in office with a Republican-controlled Congress, there now are 4.9 million fewer people working in America.  Sure, there have been job gains, but there have been job losses as well.  What these numbers do not tell us is how many of these new jobs are full-time with healthcare benefits, especially with concerns about the mandates and costs of Obamacare?  Frankly, the current job situation means significant loss of esteem for many American workers and their families, and major increases in income inequality.”
Old Gadfly:  Wait a second.  AM (a seasoned combat aviator with an inquiring mind) just walked in.  “Good morning, AM.  IM and I were just talking about this morning’s labor report.  Are you familiar with it?”
AM:   Yes.  Remember, numbers and stats can & DO LIE. We have been in trouble now for too many years, and NO, “things” are NOT getting better, but worse, with the next big “down-turn,” just around the “corner” with mandated changes in 2014.  One can LIE so much, it becomes “truth,” but with that kind of “truth,” nothing will ever get better 
Old Gadfly:  Thanks, AM.  I would add to what you said the notion that numbers are simply data.  Statistical methods can provide some useful information with the data, provided the approach is well-designed.  When statistics support a false reality, it is because the statistician was incompetent or the statistical “spinner” deliberately distorts reality. 
Your observation is on target.  It reminds me of a conversation IM and I recently had on Spin in the No Spin Zone.  
IM:  Welcome to the conversation, AM.
Old Gadfly:  You were pretty blunt with your progressive friend so early in the morning, IM.  How did your friend respond?
IM:  He said, “I cannot hear you because my forehead is bleeding.”  And then he stormed away.
Old Gadfly:  Your friend appears to be a Copernican drone. 
IM:  Perhaps so. But, he’s a good friend, and I’m hoping he’ll rationally engage in a future conversation on this and other topics.
AM:  What’s a Copernican drone?
IM:  Believe me, AM.  You are not one of them because you listen carefully to counterarguments and can explain how you arrived at your position on issues.
Old Gadfly:  AM, knowing that you are a seasoned and highly decorated combat aviator with over three decades of service to our nation, I truly understand you dedicated your life, not to mention the extensive sacrifices on the part of your family, to protecting the American way of life.  Your thinking is deeply grounded in insights regarding the meaning of the American way of life and the risks our nation faces.
IM:  Amen to that!
Old Gadfly:  Let’s meet again soon, IM and AM, to discuss many other issues that threaten America’s way of life. 
AM:  Thanks.  I look forward to it!
IM:  Me too!

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