by
Gadfly
President Trump has on numerous occasions asserted that America will never be a socialist nation. Most visibly prompting these claims are the presence of self-proclaimed socialists in today’s politics: Bernie Sanders, AOC, and so forth.
Surveys reveal that the perceived idea of socialism is increasingly popular among Generation Z (age 5 to 25) and Millennials (or Generation Y; age 26 to 40). Millennials and Generation Z will make up 37% of the electorate going into the 2020 election. Generation Z prefers socialism to capitalism.
According to Gallup, 4 out of 10 American voters support socialism in some form. Yet, even though a slight majority of American voters do not support socialism, according to another recent survey, 77% of registered Democrats do. Another survey by Pew Research captures the more complex nature of views related to capitalism and socialism.
So, is America on the brink of becoming a socialist nation? This is a binary question that implies a yes or no answer.
A more precise question is to what extent is America already a socialist nation? The answer is: socialist elements already exist. For an excellent bibliography of socialism, see Independent Institute’s article, “Best Books on the Folly of Socialism” (please spend some time reviewing the discussion that follows the article).
How do we know? One of the central features of socialism is
central planning.
What is central planning and
what does it look like?
Central planning is a noble
lie (see my article
on Noble Lies) concept where elite in a collectivist system organize society
for some social goal (with political and economic dimensions). Here is a quote from the Chapter, “Planning
and Democracy,” in F. A. Hayek’s book, The Road to Serfdom:
The common features of all
collectivist systems may be described, in a phrase ever dear to socialists of
all schools, as the deliberate organization of the labors of society for a definite
social goal. That our present society lacks such “conscious” direction toward a
single aim, that its activities are guided by the whims and fancies of
irresponsible individuals, has always been one of the main complaints
of its socialist critics.
In many ways, this puts the
basic issue very clearly. And it directs
us at once to the point where the conflict arises between individual
freedom and collectivism. The
various kinds of collectivism, communism, fascism, etc., differ among
themselves in the nature of the goal toward which they want to direct the
efforts of society. But they all differ
from liberalism and individualism in wanting to organize the whole of
society and all its resources for this unitary end and in refusing
to recognize autonomous spheres in which the ends of the individuals are
supreme. In short, they are
totalitarian in the true sense of this new word which we have adopted to
describe the unexpected but nevertheless inseparable manifestations of what in
theory we call collectivism (p. 100; bold, italics are mine).
Collectivism is fully manifested in America, where political elite are using the alleged COVID-19 crisis to advance the unitary end of safety. Unfortunately, far too many Americans have lost their understanding and meaning of the concept of liberty; thus, they have been vulnerable to this very deliberate form of collectivism. Therefore the socialist political elite assume they can exploit the “whims and fancies of irresponsible individuals."
A proper understanding of the concept of liberty is the freedom to act as one chooses, provided it does no harm to others and is consistent with the rule of law. American liberty that has been grounded in our Judeo-Christian tradition also involves a sense of personal responsibility for oneself and others, to be a good person, a good son and daughter, a good husband and wife, a good father and mother, a good neighbor, a good employee, a good citizen, and so forth. This understanding has diminished over the years due mostly to secular humanism and an entitlement mentality.
As I have previously cited in previous articles, Alexis de Tocqueville predicted these developments in his Democracy in America:
After
having thus successfully taken each member of the community in its powerful
grasp, and fashioned them at will, the supreme power then extends its arm over
the whole community. It
covers the surface of society with a net-work of small complicated rules,
minute and uniform, through which the most original minds and the most
energetic characters cannot penetrate, to rise above the crowd. The will of man is not shattered, but
softened, bent, and guided: men
are seldom forced by it to act, but they are constantly restrained from
acting: such a power does
not destroy, but it prevents existence; it does not tyrannize, but it
compresses, enervates, extinguishes, and stupefies a people, till each nation
is reduced to be nothing better than a flock of timid and industrious animals,
of which the government is the shepherd. . . . They devise a sole, tutelary, and
all-powerful form of government, but elected by the people” (Alexis de
Tocqueville, Democracy in America,
1840, p. 398).
Tyranny in America
I have watched with great
dismay, this form of tyranny descending upon our nation. While President Trump has resisted imposing
this kind of tyranny at the national level (issuing instead guidelines informed
by “the experts”), many state governors have not.
Since I am a resident of
Colorado, I will use Colorado as an example.
Governor Polis has issued orders to shut down restaurants, bars, gyms, theaters,
schools, and essentially churches.
Certain facilities could remain open with restrictions, such as grocery
stores, food takeout, and so forth. This
week, I learned the Governor will keep schools closed through December. What is the overall unitary goal? Public health safety. With all the closures, hundreds of thousands
of Coloradoans are filing for unemployment compensation. Nationally, we’re now approaching $3 trillion
in emergency economic recovering funding—all funded by debt.
What Is the Science?
As a former university professor
(with a Ph.D.) and technical think tank analysist, I have been trying to
understand the so called science justifying these actions. It is dubious at best. I do not trust what is being reported.
First, let’s start with a
display that an ordinary person might see if they do a Bing.com search using
the search term, “COVID-19
data.” Here is one of the displays:
The number of deaths reported: 50,177 for the United States and, in this image, 552 for Colorado.
Consulting the CDC website, Table 1 below, as of April 23, 2020 reports a total of 23,358 COVID-19 deaths. This number includes confirmed and presumed COVID-17 deaths (see footnotes below the Table). The total number of pneumonia deaths is 53,768 (more than double COVID-17 deaths). Influenza death totals (between the week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/18/2020) are 5,530. Note the footnote suggests some influenza deaths may include presumed COVID-19. Earlier in the year, CDC reported 24,000 influenza deaths (before COVID became a player).
NOTE:
Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received
and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that
occurred in that period.
*Data
during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the
death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS
and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8
weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.
1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to
ICD–10 code U07.1.
2Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving
influenza.
3Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or
COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.
4Population is based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S.
Census Bureau (9)
Here is another qualifier regarding COVID-19 cause of death. CDC issued guidance on determining the underlying cause of death (UCOD) when it relates to COVID-19. Here is the essence of the guidance:
In cases where a definite
diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the
circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is
acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or
“presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical
judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please
note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.
This is an example of “science”
coming from the CDC. I could find no
other similar guidance for other infectious diseases. So, a lot of the “data” being used for
guiding policy decisions is based on guesses (“probable” or “presumed”.
Table 2 below shows the number
of deaths by age group. Note that for
the groups 65 and older, 18,439 account for the 23,358 total or 79% under
COVID-19. The same group accounts for
43,664 of 53,768 pneumonia deaths, or 81%.
The same group accounts for 3,594 of 5,530 influenza deaths, or 65%. In terms of the overall population, 23,358
COVID-19 total deaths out of 327,167,434 is .007%.
Table 5 below provides data
for each state. The graphic below is
truncated to include Colorado, which shows 348 COVID-19 deaths, 809 pneumonia deaths,
and 90 influenza deaths. These data are
different from that being reported on the Graphic above on the Bing.com website
(552 COVID-19 deaths).
So, what are we to conclude from the above data presentations? First, it is far from certain, especially when any of it includes guessing. Second, the guessing likely suffers from confirmation bias with the rampant fear generated in the public narrative. Third, most of the “science” that seems to guide the current public policy paradigm comes from technocrats.
Technocrats
In his recent book, The
Storm before the Calm: America’s
Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, George
Friedman describes the American technocrat:
The idea that emerged from
both the New Deal and World War II was that a state managed by experts
dedicated to solutions without an ideology would do for the country what it did
for the war: it would breed
success. But of course, this became a
principle, the principle became a belief, and the belief became an
ideology. The ideology created a class
who felt entitled to govern and who were believed to be suitable to govern. . . .
The focus of the technocracy
was social engineering, restructuring the way in which economic and social
institutions worked in order to improve the lives of citizens. (p. 105).
CDC’s Dr. Fauci is a
technocrat. His credibility is beyond reproach
by the left. The left relishes the daily
White House press briefing when Dr. Fauci appears to contradict something President
Trump has said. For example, President
Trump seemed optimistic about hydroxychloroquine as a possible remedy. Dr. Fauci argued that it had not been proven
through clinical testing. Thus, he
debunked the study published by several French doctors (available here)
because it was not set up using the clinical testing paradigm that the CDC
considers the gold standard.
The French doctors that conducted
the study concluded: “Despite its
small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is
significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19
patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin.”
Despite the actual
evidence of successful use of hydroxychloroquine in combination with azithromycin in the French
study, it was of no value to Dr. Fauci and fellow technocrats. In fact, Google,
You Tube, Facebook, and Twitter have warned viewers that the study provides
misinformation.
Most recently, when President
Trump suggested we will get COVID-19 behind us moving into the summer, Dr.
Fauci contradicted him by say COVID-19 will be with us going into
the fall. How does he know? CDC can’t even collect accurate data and he
is predicting with certainty that COVID-19 will be with us going into the fall?
Predicting or even forecasting
is very difficult. Scientists can’t even
predict the weather. Therefore we see
weather forecasts. Philip Tetlock and Dan
Gardner wrote about this in their recent book, Super
Forecasting. “In this groundbreaking and accessible
book, Tetlock and Gardner show . . . that good forecasting doesn’t require
powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a
variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping
score, and being willing to admit error and change course.”
For his part, President Trump appears to have surrounded himself with a variety of sources, has formed teams (task forces), and has adjusted along the way to keep America safe and also economically sound.
Unfortunately, President Trump
is swimming against ideological currents.
Conditions Ripe for Socialism
Even before the COVID-19 crisis, there were conditions lending themselves to fulfilling the Cloward-Piven Strategy published in the 1960s. The strategy called for overloading the U.S. public welfare system in order to precipitate a crisis that would lead to a replacement of the welfare system with "a guaranteed annual income and thus an end to poverty". Cloward and Piven, Columbia University Professors were self-proclaimed socialists.
The following graphic from the Manhattan Institute shows the difference in the percentage of mandatory (welfare/entitlement) spending in 1965 (34%) and 2019 (70%):
Despite the nearly doubling of mandatory spending of a constantly increasing federal budget, poverty levels have remained essentially the same percentage of the population.
Yet, a more disturbing demographic is the gradual reduction of the labor participation rate. In the last two decades (2000-2020), the passing of the Affordable Care Act of 2009 had a significant impact on the labor participation rate, when employees lost their jobs due to employer mandates. The rate hovers at aroung 63%. See the graphic below (retrieved from the Bureau of Labor Statistics):
Since state Governors have essentially placed their states in lock down status, over 22 million have filed claims for unemployment compensation. This number represents 13.5% of the labor force. How many of these individuals will be able to return to their jobs when lock downs are reversed? If many do not, the labor participation rate could approach 50%--half of our labor force actually working, the other half on welfare.
Combine these changes with our medical infrastructure impact (many healthcare professionals not directly associated with COVID-19 have been furloughed), there will be additional ammunition for universal healthcare. For compelling analysis along these lines (and the large number of deaths due to the ban on elective procedures) see articles by A.J. Kay here and here.
Conclusion
America is on the verge of becoming a socialist nation. The COVID-19 crisis is an instrument in the hands of the left to push America across the threshold. The narrative on this crisis is shaped by technocrats and amplified by leftist politicians and the mainstream media. Since many, if not most, Americans have lost their understanding of liberty (and the reason a Constitutional Republic was established to protect it), they are vulnerable to the tyrannical, collectivist actions in pursuit of a unitary goal: safety. Yet, even safety is a means for achieving the ultimate goal of a single party (collectivist) rule of American society.
If Democrats keep the House and take the Senate and President Trump wins reelection, he’ll be a four-year lame duck President. If President Trump loses. America will cross the socialist threshold. Many, many Americans will then lament, “We did not know” (a refrain so common among Germans after Hitler gained power and took Germany and the world on a horrific path—see this clip from Judgment at Nuremberg).
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